Supervisors: Dr. Ed Hawkins (e.hawkins@reading.ac.uk), Prof. Keith
Haines, Dr. Dan Hodson Department of Meteorology, University of Reading
A fully-funded PhD studentship starting in October 2012 is available to
examine the predictability of the opening of the Arctic sea routes – an
important aspect of Arctic climate which is of particular relevance to
industry and decision makers. Arctic sea routes are important to such
stakeholders for several
reasons: (i) passage of ships on shorter routes between the Atlantic and
Pacific, (ii) access to reserves of minerals, oil etc., and (iii) the
potential for conflict over access to, and ownership of, the sea routes.
Although the main focus of the studentship will be on examining the
potential for predictions of the opening of Arctic sea routes a season
or more ahead of time, longer term
climate projections will also be considered.
This project is part of a wider coordinated programme to examine Arctic
predictability, and Arctic
climate more widely. The student will first gain an understanding of
Arctic climate variability and change,
and how these are represented across a wide range of state-of-the-art
global climate models. They will
use and develop a range of tools to analyse complex datasets. The latest
climate model projections
produced for IPCC AR5 will be examined to determine the likely time in
the 21st century of regular
opening of Arctic sea routes in each season, with associated
uncertainties. The project will also examine
the potential for seasonal to inter-annual predictions of the opening of
the Arctic sea routes. This will be
addressed through analysis of climate model simulations to examine
whether reliable predictions of open
sea routes may be possible, and at what forecast lead time. This will be
followed by an assessment of the
operational seasonal predictions of Arctic sea-ice to determine the
prediction ability of current seasonal
prediction systems in forecasting open sea routes at various lead times
from months to seasons. The
predictions will necessarily be probabilistic with a focus on the
reliability of the forecasts, i.e. are the
uncertainties realistic?
This project will require analysis of climate simulations and sea-ice
observations, developing an understanding of physical processes involved
in Arctic climate, and good maths and computing skills. It
will also involve active collaboration with industrial and
policy-related partners.
About the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading:
The PhD programme is a key component of the research within the
Meteorology department with around
50 research students in total. Our research is especially recognised for
its strong grounding in the physical and mathematical sciences. The
student will be supervised by Dr. Ed Hawkins, with additional assistance
from Professor Keith Haines and Dr. Dan Hodson.
The student will be assigned a monitoring committee who will
independently monitor and support their progress every six months. The
student will have their own desk and computer within the department,
access to the department and main university libraries, and a wide range
of online journals. They will be able to attend the wide range of
seminars, talks and research group meetings held within the department
each week. They will have access to the wide ranging courses on
continuing professional development provided by the university, covering
issues such as software packages, writing and speaking skills and time
management. They will have the opportunity to develop their presentation
skills via departmental PhD project presentation days and departmental
seminars. The output of this work is likely to be policy relevant and
the student will be encouraged to apply for a NERC Parliamentary Office
of Science & Technology (POST) internship during their PhD.
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Dr Jonathan Day - Research Scientist - NCAS-Climate
EMAIL: j.j.day@reading.ac.uk
WEB: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~jonny/home/
TWITTER: @jonny_day
Dept. of Meteorology, Phone: 0118 378 6018
University of Reading, Fax: 0118 378 8316
READING. RG6 6BB. UK. Room: 3L71
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The University of Edinburgh is a charitable body, registered in
Scotland, with registration number SC005336.
